I bought 5,000 shares of Tesla 5 years ago now in 2019. When I retired in 2022 I sold about a third of my stock in May 2022 at about $315/sh. It has been a wild ride for sure. Up 1200% and down 50 to 73% many times. If a person just bought after large downdrafts they would have done fantastic even if they just traded it. I prefer to just buy and hold, selling only to transfer money out of a workplace retirement account in 2022. I think it is a cutting edge innovation company with a dynamic, committed CEO. Until Musk runs out of new ideas I am not selling this business. In 5 years this company could look just as different then as it did 5 years ago when I bought it. I plan to buy more when the next recession happens.
That must have been a thrilling ride! I’ve always looked over at Tesla but never considered investing in it, its just not in my circle of competence. I know loads, just not enough to make it “my own”. Do you have a price in mind when you would consider investing in Tesla again?
Whats your take on if Musk decides to leave one day, do you think this could significantly affect your thesis/ the long-term vision of the business? It seems like you’re seasoned Tesla investors, I’m curious about your take on this.
Yes, I have never had an experience investing like this before. My investing MO up to then was "3 yards in a cloud of dust." Not too thrilling in other words. Index funds, mutual funds, muni bonds etc. I grew up in the auto business as my dad had a gas station in the 1940's, 50's, 60's,70's. I worked for him starting in about 1966 when I turned 8. I just remember him complaining about how dirty and unhealthy the business was. He had a special brush to clean the grease from under his nails, and Boraxo soaps too. I knew that most inventions don't last more than 100 years at most. But until Tesla turned a profit I wasn't willing to risk my capital on the electric car. I bought my shares the day after they reported their first profitable quarter. I had been watching youtube videos for probably 7 years about the company and their new model S that was under development.
I think your valuation is pretty accurate for a price point to buy. Somewhere well under $70/sh. About $40 or less would be ideal to me. My cost on my remaining 3500 shares is about $27.
The key currently is do they finish the FSD project before the next recession? If not then the stock will fall. If they do, it may not fall and may even rise some. FSD is pretty damn good right now, but not ready for prime time ...yet. I read 2 of the biographies on Musk. Betting against him is like betting against Tom Brady. He doesn't like to lose! He is pretty much committed to Tesla for the next decade or so in my opinion. By then it could be mostly a software, robotics, energy company and maybe anyone could run it. It is hard to know for sure. I just know that the future of the auto industry is ALL ELECTRIC and that humanity always goes forward not backwards. Battery costs are going to come way, way down over the next decade for sure. Gas cars are done as that materializes. Gas stations will be closing everywhere. I live in Seattle and electric cars are everywhere here. Tesla is not for the faint of heart.
Amazing view, thanks for sharing! And I think you’re right. The business can be run with someone else if Elon ever desires to hop off. I’m also curious about the FSD project, time will tell!
Thanks
Thanks Jose! Was there anything I missed you like to see in another deep dive? 😄
R&D and M&A
looking forward to future DD
Noted, thank you!
I bought 5,000 shares of Tesla 5 years ago now in 2019. When I retired in 2022 I sold about a third of my stock in May 2022 at about $315/sh. It has been a wild ride for sure. Up 1200% and down 50 to 73% many times. If a person just bought after large downdrafts they would have done fantastic even if they just traded it. I prefer to just buy and hold, selling only to transfer money out of a workplace retirement account in 2022. I think it is a cutting edge innovation company with a dynamic, committed CEO. Until Musk runs out of new ideas I am not selling this business. In 5 years this company could look just as different then as it did 5 years ago when I bought it. I plan to buy more when the next recession happens.
That must have been a thrilling ride! I’ve always looked over at Tesla but never considered investing in it, its just not in my circle of competence. I know loads, just not enough to make it “my own”. Do you have a price in mind when you would consider investing in Tesla again?
Whats your take on if Musk decides to leave one day, do you think this could significantly affect your thesis/ the long-term vision of the business? It seems like you’re seasoned Tesla investors, I’m curious about your take on this.
Yes, I have never had an experience investing like this before. My investing MO up to then was "3 yards in a cloud of dust." Not too thrilling in other words. Index funds, mutual funds, muni bonds etc. I grew up in the auto business as my dad had a gas station in the 1940's, 50's, 60's,70's. I worked for him starting in about 1966 when I turned 8. I just remember him complaining about how dirty and unhealthy the business was. He had a special brush to clean the grease from under his nails, and Boraxo soaps too. I knew that most inventions don't last more than 100 years at most. But until Tesla turned a profit I wasn't willing to risk my capital on the electric car. I bought my shares the day after they reported their first profitable quarter. I had been watching youtube videos for probably 7 years about the company and their new model S that was under development.
I think your valuation is pretty accurate for a price point to buy. Somewhere well under $70/sh. About $40 or less would be ideal to me. My cost on my remaining 3500 shares is about $27.
The key currently is do they finish the FSD project before the next recession? If not then the stock will fall. If they do, it may not fall and may even rise some. FSD is pretty damn good right now, but not ready for prime time ...yet. I read 2 of the biographies on Musk. Betting against him is like betting against Tom Brady. He doesn't like to lose! He is pretty much committed to Tesla for the next decade or so in my opinion. By then it could be mostly a software, robotics, energy company and maybe anyone could run it. It is hard to know for sure. I just know that the future of the auto industry is ALL ELECTRIC and that humanity always goes forward not backwards. Battery costs are going to come way, way down over the next decade for sure. Gas cars are done as that materializes. Gas stations will be closing everywhere. I live in Seattle and electric cars are everywhere here. Tesla is not for the faint of heart.
Amazing view, thanks for sharing! And I think you’re right. The business can be run with someone else if Elon ever desires to hop off. I’m also curious about the FSD project, time will tell!